Confluence Checker: Is Your Setup Actually Tradeable?
Most checklists count anything that sounds like confluence. This one grades a setup exactly the way the tested CAP rules do: four gates that must all pass, then seven confluence checks that decide the grade. It shows how that grade did across 10,899 backtest trades, with its sample size. It will not tell you what you want to hear.
Backtest on BTC, ETH, SOL and LINK, 2018 to 2026, S and A grades, every cost included, modelled versions of Charles’s calls — not a live track record. Every trade is on the results page. Past performance — including documented win rates — does not guarantee future results.
How the Result Is Calculated
One Grade, MeasuredThe checker applies the same order as the rules. If any of the four gates is missing there is no trade, whatever else the chart shows. If all four pass, it counts the seven Gate 4 checks: six or more with the setup early in the move is an S, five is an A, and anything less is not traded. It then reports how that grade did in the four-coin backtest. It does not invent a grade in between, and it does not round anything up.
| Coin | S trades | S win rate | A trades | A win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1,056 | 84.0% | 1,975 | 78.1% |
| Ethereum | 1,145 | 82.2% | 1,836 | 78.4% |
| Solana | 799 | 71.8% | 1,227 | 75.8% |
| Chainlink | 1,041 | 80.9% | 1,820 | 77.3% |
| All four | 4,041 | 80.3% | 6,858 | 77.5% |
Two things in that table matter more than the top row. The S grade earns its place mainly through the size of its wins: S trades averaged +4.28R against +2.44R for A, while the win rates sit only a few points apart. And on Solana the A grade actually won more often than the S, 75.8% against 71.8%. A grade is not a promise; it is a filter that the backtest says is worth applying, and that is published even where it cuts against the product.
The sweep. Under the tested rules a pullback that has not swept an earlier swing is not a CAP setup, so it is a gate, not a box that adds points. The same goes for the bigger move, the break of structure and the 0.382 line. Checks are only counted once all four are in place, which is why this grader can say “no trade” with nine boxes ticked.
Why a Checklist Beats a Feeling
Decide When Calm, Execute When HotThe hardest part of trading is taking the same decision the same way under live pressure. A countable checklist moves the hard thinking to a calm moment: you decide the threshold in advance, and when price is moving and your pulse is up, you are no longer deciding whether to trade — you are simply counting boxes. That is the entire premise of a mechanical approach. It only works if the boxes are the ones the rules actually use, which is why this grader has four gates and seven checks, and nothing else.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the confluence checker?
A free interactive tool that grades a setup the way the tested CAP rules do. First it checks the four things every trade needs: the bigger move, a break of structure, a pullback to the OTE zone (0.382 to 0.236 on the inverted Fibonacci, sweet spot 0.295), and a sweep of an earlier swing. Then it counts the seven Gate 4 confluence checks. Six or more, early in the move, is an S grade; five is an A; four or fewer is not traded. It shows how that grade did in the four-coin backtest.
Which grades does the CAP trade?
Only S and A. In the backtest on 2018 to 2026 prices with every cost included, S grade setups won 80.3% on n=4,041 with an average trade of +4.28R, and A grade setups won 77.5% on n=6,858 with an average of +2.44R. B and lower are never taken, so no figure is published for them. These are modelled versions of Charles’s calls, not account statements, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why is the liquidity sweep required?
Because under the tested rules a pullback that has not swept an earlier swing is not a CAP setup at all, however many other checks it has. The sweep takes out the stops resting beyond that swing before the reversal, and the entry is the first lower-timeframe close back beyond the sweep candle. No sweep, no trade.
Do these win rates apply to my trades?
Not directly. They come from the CAP rules run on Binance price data with modelled versions of Charles’s calls on the direction of the bigger move. If your direction calls, zones, entries or exits differ, your results will differ too; with one call in five deliberately wrong, the backtest’s win rate fell below 60%. The checker tells you which grade your setup resembles. Build your own sample before sizing on it.
Is the checker a signal service?
No. It does not predict price or generate trade alerts. It is a discipline tool that turns your own analysis into the grade the rules would give it, so you act on what the setup actually has rather than on how it feels. You still do the analysis.
Does the checker store my data?
No. Everything runs in your browser. Nothing you tick is sent anywhere or saved on a server, and the result disappears when you close the page.
A score is a start. A system is the edge.
The grader is the front door to the CAP Framework — the same four gates and seven checks, sequenced into a five-gate, if-this-then-that decision protocol for BTC, ETH, SOL and LINK.
Every backtest trade behind these figures is published, with the weak years and the worst losing stretches beside it, and so is the finding that cuts against the product: on Solana, A grades won more often than S.
Explore the CAP Framework →Want the free playbook first? Get the 8-Point Checklist →
The Chart Whisperer · chartwhisperer.ca · Educational tool only · not financial advice.